Taux de réussite
69.3%
16350 prédictions au total
Réussite (7 jours)
76.2%
2015 prédictions
Avantage moy. (fort)
+29.0%
sur les signaux forts
Gains simulés
+296.69€
en misanant 10€ sur chaque signal fort
Prédictions totales
16350
depuis le démarrage
—
—
BTC : — depuis l'ouverture
Proba UP selon le modèle
—
Proba UP selon Polymarket
—
Avantage sur le marché
—
⚡
Le marché converge
Fenêtre en cours (5 min)
Volume misé sur Polymarket : —
Signaux :
Mise :
Slippage :
Capital :
€
Paris —
Win rate —
Final —
Profit —
Max drawdown —
🥇
Sécurisé 2%
2% fixe par signal — capital prioritaire
-142.54€
Budget : 57.46€ (départ 200€)
16350 paris · 68.3% réussite
🥈
Ultra-sélectif
5% si edge > 12% — très filtré
-199.0€
Budget : 1.0€ (départ 200€)
1491 paris · 42.1% réussite
🥉
Kelly ¼
Formule Kelly ÷ 4 — croissance sans ruine
-199.02€
Budget : 0.98€ (départ 200€)
2121 paris · 45.2% réussite
4
Edge proportionnel
Mise = avantage × budget, max 15%
-199.04€
Budget : 0.96€ (départ 200€)
532 paris · 46.4% réussite
5
Kelly plein
Kelly complet — optimal théorique mais volatil
-199.06€
Budget : 0.94€ (départ 200€)
196 paris · 44.9% réussite
6
Kelly ½
Formule Kelly ÷ 2 — meilleur compromis
-199.07€
Budget : 0.93€ (départ 200€)
1004 paris · 45.5% réussite
| Heure |
Variation BTC |
Prédiction |
Confiance |
Cote marché (UP) |
Avantage |
Signal |
Résultat |
Gain simulé |
| 17:07 |
—
|
UP
|
46.9% |
53.0% |
+3.0%
|
FAIBLE
|
En cours…
|
—
|
| 17:02 |
-0.01%
|
DOWN
|
41.9% |
27.9% |
+22.1%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+3.86€
|
| 16:57 |
-0.14%
|
DOWN
|
62.4% |
5.5% |
+44.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+0.58€
|
| 16:52 |
-0.33%
|
UP
|
11.8% |
95.5% |
+45.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+0.47€
|
| 16:47 |
+0.03%
|
UP
|
55.0% |
87.5% |
+37.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+1.43€
|
| 16:42 |
+0.09%
|
DOWN
|
93.2% |
42.5% |
+7.5%
|
MODÉRÉ
|
✅ DOWN
|
+7.39€
|
| 16:37 |
-0.7%
|
DOWN
|
54.7% |
2.5% |
+47.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+0.26€
|
| 16:32 |
-0.91%
|
DOWN
|
60.3% |
0.5% |
+49.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+0.05€
|
| 16:27 |
-0.63%
|
UP
|
5.2% |
98.5% |
+48.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+0.15€
|
| 16:22 |
+0.32%
|
UP
|
23.2% |
96.5% |
+46.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+0.36€
|
| 16:17 |
+0.46%
|
UP
|
50.3% |
66.2% |
+16.2%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+5.11€
|
| 16:12 |
+0.26%
|
UP
|
46.5% |
88.5% |
+38.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+1.3€
|
| 16:07 |
+0.21%
|
UP
|
56.6% |
82.6% |
+32.6%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+2.11€
|
| 16:02 |
-0.06%
|
UP
|
30.1% |
52.0% |
+2.0%
|
FAIBLE
|
❌ DOWN
|
-10€
|
| 15:57 |
-0.08%
|
UP
|
45.3% |
81.5% |
+31.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+2.27€
|
| 15:52 |
-0.04%
|
DOWN
|
86.2% |
12.5% |
+37.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+1.43€
|
| 15:47 |
+0.19%
|
UP
|
64.4% |
95.5% |
+45.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+0.47€
|
| 15:42 |
+0.53%
|
UP
|
83.7% |
93.5% |
+43.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+0.7€
|
| 15:37 |
+0.06%
|
UP
|
41.6% |
82.5% |
+32.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+2.12€
|
| 15:32 |
+0.03%
|
UP
|
11.9% |
69.5% |
+19.5%
|
FORT
|
❌ DOWN
|
-10€
|
| 15:27 |
-0.03%
|
DOWN
|
34.3% |
11.5% |
+38.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+1.3€
|
| 15:22 |
-0.02%
|
DOWN
|
43.5% |
2.5% |
+47.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+0.26€
|
| 15:17 |
-0.24%
|
DOWN
|
89.7% |
18.5% |
+31.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+2.27€
|
| 15:12 |
+0.04%
|
DOWN
|
55.6% |
46.5% |
+3.5%
|
FAIBLE
|
❌ UP
|
-10€
|
| 15:07 |
+0.0%
|
DOWN
|
25.4% |
39.5% |
+10.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ DOWN
|
+6.53€
|
| 15:02 |
-0.08%
|
DOWN
|
53.4% |
43.5% |
+6.5%
|
MODÉRÉ
|
✅ DOWN
|
+7.7€
|
| 14:57 |
-0.04%
|
UP
|
47.8% |
70.5% |
+20.5%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+4.18€
|
| 14:52 |
+0.03%
|
DOWN
|
50.9% |
43.5% |
+6.5%
|
MODÉRÉ
|
❌ UP
|
-10€
|
| 14:47 |
+0.01%
|
DOWN
|
65.8% |
41.5% |
+8.5%
|
MODÉRÉ
|
❌ UP
|
-10€
|
| 14:42 |
+0.03%
|
UP
|
47.8% |
82.3% |
+32.3%
|
FORT
|
✅ UP
|
+2.15€
|
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